Making Seasonal Forecast Useful for Decisions
Summary:
| Translating raw seasonal climate forecasts into country-level threat profiles presents notable challenges, both methodologically and operationally. To move toward an operational system, beneficial for decision making, we recommend 3 pathways for future activities: 1. Quality and skill assessments, including the validation of our approach with historical impact analysis, the incorporation of forecast product skills, 2. Mapping of influenced client’s services and mandates, 3. Tool design and integration, including the choice for risk scale flagging system. Seasonal forecasts have improved decision making in various sectors, however clear methods for integration within the development sector have been lacking – particularly in informing national and regional decision making. This session will explore some of the reasons for this gap, and present a novel analytical framework being developed by the World Bank and Columbia University to overlay seasonal forecasts with information on exposure and sensitivity to provide an easy-to-use and actionable framework for identifying upcoming risk hotspots to inform development programming. The session will also discuss options for encouraging greater innovation in tailoring weather and climate information to the complex operational environment facing national and regional decision makers, specific to sustainable development. We explore opportunities to promote efforts in combining seasonal forecasts with wider environmental and socio-economic outlooks to provide a more detailed assessment of the potential for compounding threats. @worldbank @climatesociety @columbiaclimate |
Speakers:
Lindsey Jones
Andrew Kruczkiewicz
Agathe Bucherie