This technical background paper discusses volcanic ash fall hazard modelling, implemented at the global and local scales (Napoli, Italy). These models are probabilistic whereas outputs are in the form of hazard maps and curves that show the probabilities associated with exceeding key hazard thresholds at the given locations.
The scarcity of detailed empirical data for ash fall impacts limits our ability to provide definitive assessment of future impacts but ongoing studies for ash fall, and other volcanic hazards, continue to improve our understanding and forecasting ability. Greater knowledge of ash fall hazard and associated impacts supports mitigation actions, crisis planning and emergency management activities, and is an essential step towards building resilience for individuals and communities.
This document is a background paper of the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.
- Global Volcano Model
- International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior