Changing Risk, including Climate Change

Risk assessments need to account for temporal and spatial changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas or where climate change impacts will be felt the most. A risk assessment that provides an estimation of evolving or future risk is a way to engage stakeholders in carrying out actions now in order to avoid or mitigate the risk that is accumulating in their city or country. For example, risk analysis offers an opportunity to quantify the decrease in future risk that arises from better enforcement of building codes, and hence to demonstrate the benefit of spending additional funds on building code enforcement.

Because risk is likely to evolve under climate change—according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “a changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events” (IPCC 2012, 7)— there is increasing interest in understanding climate change’s impacts and calculating losses under future adverse climate events. Using the modelling techniques and approaches developed to model disaster risk, experts have demonstrated the potential to determine future loss under climate change. However, since the fundamental data sets that enable the risks of today to be quantified are the same as those required to determine the impacts of adverse events in the future, it is critical for both the disaster and climate change communities to continue investing in fundamental data and innovation.

Photo credit: Teaser image, World Bank; Banner image, World Bank

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