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Back to the future – Innovation in forward looking hazard modeling

Related Event

  • 2014 Understanding Risk Forum

Related Topics

  • Changing Risk, including Climate Change
  • Cyclone, Typhoon, Hurricane
  • Drought
  • Flood
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Communication & Perception
  • Storm Surge
  • Technological Advances

Related Countries

  • Bangladesh

Related Regions

  • Global

Event Summary

Organization: Disaster Reduction Programme, World Metereological Organization

Session Lead

  • Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief, Disaster Reduction Programme, World Metereological Organization

Speakers

  • Dr. Roger Pulwarty, Chief at the NOAA Climate Program and Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  • Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist, Met Office
  • Dr. Andrew Burton, Chief Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
  • Dr. Kevin Horsburgh, Head of the Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, National Oceanography Centre
  • Dr. Yuri Simonov, Senior Researcher on Hydrological Forecasts, Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Russian Federation

Description

Changing characteristics of meteorological hazards are posing challenges in emergency preparedness and risk management, as well as with longer-term strategic planning and investments in critical infrastructure and economic sectors.  A fundamental requirement for risk analysis is quantification of hazard characteristics. Traditionally, statistical analyses of hazard characteristics have been used. However, with consideration for the changing patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards, statistical analysis based on historical data should be supplemented with forward-looking modeling tools that enable us to measure changes in the characteristics of hazards at various time scales.  During this session, leading international experts will describe and discuss latest technologies in hazard modeling and  WMO activities in establishing international guidelines and standards, as well as issues related to accessibility and availability of hazard information.

Session Resources

  • Session Concept Note
  • Tropical cyclones: Innovation in analysis and forecasting
  • Innovation in forward looking hazard modelling
  • Improving global coastal inundation forecasting
  • The National Integrated Drought Information System
  • Latest tools and methodologies for flood modeling
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