- Omar Dario Cardona, Representative Consortium ERN-AL
CAPRA-Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Launch of an Innovative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model and Initiative for Disaster Risk Management Effectiveness.
This is the launch of CAPRA, the “Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment” Initiative! You are invited to be part of the CAPRA community.
Understand disaster risk due to natural hazard events creates incentives for countries to develop tools to reduce potential damages. This is the reason why CAPRA, a comprehensive disaster risk assessment platform, was developed in partnership with Central American governments with the support of the Central American Coordination Centre for Disaster Prevention (CEPREDENAC), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) and the World Bank. CAPRA is based on a probabilistic risk assessment methodology and is composed of a set of tools for the evaluation and communication of risk at different territorial levels. CAPRA allows the user to evaluate losses on exposed elements using a probabilistic metrics, such as the exceedance probability curve, expected annual loss and probable maximum loss. The platform’s development is oriented to facilitate decision making including disaster risk management in the process. With CAPRA is possible, for example, to design risk transfer instruments and to evaluate probabilistic cost-benefit ratio. CAPRA provides an innovative tool for decision makers to analyze the net benefits of the risk reduction strategies, such as retrofitting of public infraestructure. CAPRA outputs and results can be used for land use planning, to estimate loss scenarios for emergency response, to build early warning systems and on-line loss assessment mechanisms, and for disaster risk holistic evaluation using indicators. Examples of CAPRA applications and capabilities will be include in this session to illustrate this innovative open architecture ad open source platform.
How we calculate and include one or more hazards in a risk model? How we can represent and assign values to exposure data? How to define and assign vulnerability functions to each asset or exposed element? How to deal with the inherent uncertainties when we estimate risk?
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