Understanding Risk | The final mile: Connecting an impact-based warning service to decision making

Event Summary

Organization: UK Met Office, Deltares, GFDRR

Session Leads

Paul Davies, UK Met Office
Lydia Cumiskey, Deltares
Rick Murnane, GFDRR

Speakers

Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist, UK Met Office
Dr. Mahar Lagmay, Director of the National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) project, Department of Science and Technology, Philippines
Flavio Montaje, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Mozambique
Denny Wahyu Haryanto Wastoni, Head, Jakarta Disaster Management Authority (BPBD DKI Jakarta)

Description

Warnings to exposed populations are only effective if information is received, understood, and acted upon by those at risk. Despite huge advances in forecasting and warning technology, it remains challenging to present forecasts and warnings in a user-friendly way that initiates protective behavioural responses. Providing information on the potential impacts of hazard events can improve guidance to end-users for their decision-making and result in more effective actions.

To create an impact-based forecast, disaster risk information (including hazard, exposure and vulnerability data) needs to be utilised during the hazard forecasting, warning generation and dissemination process. Mainstreaming the use of exposure and vulnerability information into forecast impacts of real-time hazard scenarios for end-users comes with challenges. To do this effectively requires multi-sectoral partnerships (disaster management agencies, national hydro-meteorological services, critical infrastructure operators and civil society organisations) and their information sources that promote information and data sharing.

This session showcased emerging best practices and discussed the challenges and opportunities for mainstreaming impact-based forecasting and warning as an important component in an effective ‘end-to-end’ early warning system.