Monitoring Compound Risks in the Covid-19 Era
Organizer: World Bank Group (WBG); United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO); Centre for Disaster Protection (CDP)
| Complex crises threaten development gains. The impact of a single shock—an earthquake, a severe weather event, or a disease outbreak—can amplify existing stressors or potentially initiate a cascade of shocks, leading to larger and more sustained impacts on lives, livelihoods, and ultimately development outcomes. The ongoing COVID pandemic is a prime example of a compounding threat – one that has the potential for considerable adverse consequences on economies in both high- and low-income countries. Not only will the pandemic reduce the ability of countries to respond to wider threats, the occurrence of any additional shocks (whether natural, political or economic) during the COVID crisis is likely to hinder the recovery process and further entrench existing vulnerabilities. Tracking compounding risks, understanding their drivers, potential impacts and interactions, is therefore essential to supporting risk-informed development. Despite this, risks are often assessed and monitored in isolation – with monitoring tools focused on singular issues (such as food security, conflict or seasonal hazard). This can lead to incomplete understanding of where risk is concentrated, and potential biases in estimates of the probability and severity of adverse shocks. Based on joint work by the World Bank, United Nations and Centre for Disaster Prevention, this session will highlight state-of-the-art tools for tracking compound risk. It will explore ways of promoting the uptake of multi-dimensional risk monitoring efforts in policy and practice, and reflect on windows of opportunity for designing and implementing effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for compound risk. It is hoped that insights from the session can be used to support the ongoing development of an operational working group on tracking multi-dimensional risk – aimed at sharing and promoting best practices in support of early action and crisis prevention. Questions to be explored during the session: What is the state-of-the-art in tracking compound risk? How can real-time risk information guide global and regional decision makers to prepare for complex crises? How can efforts to track compound risk be scaled up and financed globally? What windows of opportunities existing for supporting early action? What lessons exist from WBG, UN and CDP efforts to develop a global Compound Risk Monitor (CRM)? |
Speakers:
Angeliki NIKA Nissen, Senior Analyst & Methodology Advisor, ACAPS
Lindsey Jones, Senior Risk Analyst, World Bank Group
João Bevilaqua T Basto, Consultant, UN-OCHA and World Bank Group
Ahmed Amdihun, Technical Advisor on Disaster Risk Reduction, IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center
Irene Amuron, Technical Advisor on Forecast based Financing, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Conor Meenan, Lead Risk Finance Specialist, Center for Disaster Protection
Dirk-Jan Omtzigt, Chief Economist & Head, Humanitarian Financing Strategy and Analysis Unit, United Nations OCHA
Nicola Ranger, Senior Consultant, World Bank Group
Bianca Adam, Senior Operations Officer and Team Lead for Compound Risk Analytics and Crisis Preparedness, World Bank Group