Monitoring Compound Risks in the Covid-19 Era
Thursday, Dec 03, UTC 16:00 to 17:55
Organizer: World Bank Group (WBG); United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO); Centre for Disaster Protection (CDP)
|Complex crises threaten development gains. The impact of a single shock—an earthquake, a severe weather event, or a disease outbreak—can amplify existing stressors or potentially initiate a cascade of shocks, leading to larger and more sustained impacts on lives, livelihoods, and ultimately development outcomes.|
The ongoing COVID pandemic is a prime example of a compounding threat – one that has the potential for considerable adverse consequences on economies in both high- and low-income countries. Not only will the pandemic reduce the ability of countries to respond to wider threats, the occurrence of any additional shocks (whether natural, political or economic) during the COVID crisis is likely to hinder the recovery process and further entrench existing vulnerabilities.
Tracking compounding risks, understanding their drivers, potential impacts and interactions, is therefore essential to supporting risk-informed development. Despite this, risks are often assessed and monitored in isolation – with monitoring tools focused on singular issues (such as food security, conflict or seasonal hazard). This can lead to incomplete understanding of where risk is concentrated, and potential biases in estimates of the probability and severity of adverse shocks.
This session – co-organized by the World Bank, United Nations and Centre for Disaster Prevention – will discuss the challenges of compound risk analytics and promising developments in the tracking compound risk. It will explore ways of promoting the uptake of multi-dimensional risk monitoring efforts in policy and practice, and reflect on windows of opportunity for linking Early Warning Systems (EWS) to early action intervention for compound risk. The session will contribute to a growing community of practitioners interested in tracking multi-dimensional risk – aimed at sharing and promoting best practices in support of early action and crisis prevention.
Questions and themes that will be covered during the session include:
o What is compound risk and why is tracking it so important?
o What compounding threats are currently being monitored, particularly in relation interactions between COVID-19 and wider natural, socio-economic and fiscal conditions?
o A first glance at monitoring efforts developed by development partners, including WBG, UN and CDP
o What best practices existing for ensuring development and humanitarian stakeholders act on multidimensional risk information?
o How can efforts to track compound risk be scaled up? What are the windows of opportunities for supporting early action?