Multiform flood risk in a complex future flooded world: Earth observation and complex systems for compound risk assessment
Organizer: The World Bank Group
| Risk, and particularly flood risk, can be seen as the resultant of different forces acting on a complex system. Well-accepted and diffused frameworks describe the forces and elements of the system with hazard, exposure and vulnerability, components that are continuously under change over space and time, in many cases rapidly, and whose interactions determine the level of risk. For an efficient and adaptable risk management, all the elements of this complex system, together with their trajectories and changes, have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, allowing for an effective design of DRR measures and policies. Nonetheless, we live in a complex world where things often are even more complicated, with compound hazards acting on rapidly urbanizing areas, making the description of the forces and the domain where they act extremely difficult: floods can become multiform floods by combining with other types of hazards (e.g. heat-waves or pandemics) or different types of floods (e.g. riverine with coastal), land use can change from one month to the other (e.g. urban development), society can evolve rapidly (e.g. demography, education, etc.). How can we inform DRR measures and policies in such a complex world? What is our responsibility to uphold the integrity of the science that we wish to communicate, without paralyzing the decision making and policy maker? New sources of data, -Earth Observation, social media and mobility data- are becoming important to describe this complex system, and new tools, -machine learning and AI, complex systems analysis and socio-hydrology, are supporting their analysis. Nonetheless, where hazards hit, things can be far from ideal. This session allows for a platform to share evolving trends in data applications, critique new tools and debate best-practices related to understanding and mitigating multiform floods in rapidly changing environments, involving experts of data production, of tools development and of DRM in the field. |
Speakers:
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Professor
Irene Monasterolo, Assistant Professor
Astrid Caldas, Senior Climate Scientist
Margaret Glasscoe, Research Scientist
Moriah Royz, Product Manager
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Faculty/Senior Researcher Columbia University. Science Adviser Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.