Risk Assessment

Risk assessments are produced in order to estimate possible economic, infrastructure, and social impacts arising from a particular hazard or multiple hazards. Three components are usually considered when assessing risk and probable loss: exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. Exposure represents the stock of property and infrastructure exposed to a hazard, and it can include socioeconomic factors. Hazard is defined as the probability of experiencing a certain intensity of hazard at a location and is usually determined by an historical or user-defined scenario, probabilistic hazard assessment, or other methods. Some hazard modules can include secondary perils (such as soil liquefaction or fires caused by earthquakes, or storm surge associated with a tropical cyclone or extra-tropical cyclone). Vulnerability accounts for the susceptibility to damage of the assets exposed to the forces generated by the hazard. Fragility and vulnerability functions estimate the damage ratio and consequent mean loss respectively, and/or the social cost (e.g., number of injured, homeless, and dead) generated by a hazard, given the specified exposure.

Risk assessments provide an opportunity before a disaster to determine the likely deaths, damages, and losses (direct and indirect) that will result from a hazard event, and to highlight which actions will be most effective in reducing the impacts on individuals, communities, and governments. This ability to model disaster loss and to provide robust analysis of the costs and benefits of risk preparedness, reduction, and avoidance has made disaster risk assessments a powerful tool in disaster risk management (DRM). As a result, the number of risk assessments being undertaken is growing, innovation has flourished, and a vast array of approaches, experiences, and lessons learned now exists.

Understanding risk through risk assessments and effective communication is essential to the field of DRM.

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